A new study by the CirculaTUM consortium at the Technical University of Munich (TUM) argues that the EU's CO₂ fleet regulation for passenger cars is methodologically incomplete, as it only counts tailpipe emissions and ignores production, energy provision, and end-of-life effects. Analysing 19 published studies covering 47 scenarios, the researchers found that battery-electric vehicles produce 41 per cent lower lifecycle CO₂ emissions than comparable combustion vehicles on average, with EVs outperforming ICEs in roughly 92 per cent of cases. Results varied widely by scenario, however, ranging from 89 per cent lower to 21 per cent higher emissions depending on production methods, grid mix, and recycling rates.
Because current fleet limits assign EVs a flat zero g CO₂/km value regardless of how they were built or charged, TUM argues manufacturers have no regulatory incentive to decarbonise production or recycling chains. Savings from measures such as near-CO₂-free steel or improved battery-material recovery currently go unrecognised. The study proposes a lifecycle-based standard instead, with steel cited as a feasible starting point given its comparatively solid emissions data.
The paper also flags a gap versus EU 2030 climate goals: based on one of the reviewed studies, the passenger car sector could cut around 80 million tonnes of CO₂ by 2030 under planned electrification rates, against a required 188 million tonnes — a shortfall exceeding 100 million tonnes. TUM notes this figure stems from a single source and isn't an independent market forecast. Combustion vehicles are still expected to make up about 78 per cent of Europe's car fleet in 2030 due to long vehicle lifespans.
TUM further contends that the credit mechanisms proposed in the EU's Auto Package, including green-steel and e-fuel credits, could offset at most 10 per cent of a manufacturer's required CO₂ reduction, and calls for a mandatory, verifiable lifecycle-assessment requirement alongside them.
Source: electrive.com — read the original article